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Prediction for CME (2020-05-26T00:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-05-26T00:39Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/15535/-1
CME Note: Speculative source location is a brightening at the edge of the northern extension of the southern polar coronal hole. A faint ripple is visible in the western streamer in C2/C3 but this was not used for measuring. Shock arrival time description from Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: I think it is a flux rope followed by a high speed stream. I can see a magnetic field red-component rotation with polarity south-to-north. The blue y-component is mostly south. The solar wind speed within the structure is increasing, a signature of compression and also consistent with the changes in the red z-magnetic field component at the front of the structure. The structure is followed by an increase in magnetic field, proton temperature and solar wind speed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-05-29T22:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-05-29T02:27Z
Prediction Method: SPM2
Prediction Method Note:

SPM2 Input Parameters:
Date-time:   2020-05-26T00:39:00
Source Longtitude: 10
Source Latitude:  -5
Initial Shock Speed:  266 km/s
Background Solar Wind Speed:  329 km/s
Duration Time: 0.5 hr

Output results: The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2020-05-29 02:26:49UT.

Lead Time: 37.02 hour(s)
Difference: 19.55 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2020-05-28T08:59Z

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